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Thursday, January 20, 2005
Doubling for Less, A powerful tournament strategy
In casino blackjack, the rules for doubling and splitting have one key difference. While both of these rules allow a player to increase his wager after the initial cards are dealt, splitting specifically requires the player to match the original bet amount with an equal wager on the second hand, while doubling down has no such restriction. The casino will gladly allow you to "double for less", by adding an amount less than the original bet in return for drawing only one additional card. That's not surprising, since doubling for less is never the correct strategy for a player at a regular game. If it is advantageous to double, it's best to get as much money on the table as possible. Remember, you're also giving up the ability to draw more than one card to your hand.
While doubling for less is always a mistake in a live game, tournament play is different. In fact, when used properly, doubling for less is a powerful technique for getting an extra edge over your opponents. In this article, we'll look at two examples when it's appropriate.
In the article on position, I discussed the importance of position in tournament play, and noted that players to your left are a bigger threat than players to your right. The reason is simple. On most hands, the players to your left get to see your bet and playing decisions before they make their own decisions. As a result, having a second opportunity to change the amount of your wager can be valuable. That means doubling and splitting are more useful than in regular table play in flash casino.
Example 1: Stealing a shot at the lead
Let's imagine that you are trailing a player to your left by $50, and you are nearing the end of the round. If you can't afford to wait until the button passes you to make a move for the lead, doubling or splitting can be your best shot. Let's say you bet $100, and your opponent matches that bet behind you. The cards are dealt and you have a hard 12, he has a hard 18, and the dealer shows a 4 upcard. Here's a situation where basic strategy says you should stand. However, it's also a great opportunity to steal the lead from your opponent. By doubling your 12, you can take the lead if successful. However, since this is generally a poor play, you should double for as little as possible to accomplish your goal. In this case, doubling for $55 or $60 is appropriate.
While this can be a strong play, there are several factors you should consider before pulling the trigger on the double. How many hands are left’ How many hands will he be betting behind you’ What is the maximum bet, and what are the bankrolls’ Perhaps the most critical factor is how damaging a losing swing would be to your chances. If you bust the 12, and the dealer busts behind you, you are now $305 behind. If the max bet is $300, that's a terrible handicap, and unless the round is nearly over, you should perhaps skip this opportunity and hope for a better shot later. On the other hand, if the max bet is $1000, and you both have plenty of chips, then a $305 deficit is no big deal, and this is probably a great time to take a shot.
Note that the same factors apply to your opponent after you double. If you succeed in drawing a good card to your hand, he may consider doubling his hard 18 behind you. While it's almost a sure loser, if a negative swing is not a big deal it might be the right play for him.
Example 2: Forcing your opponent to make a choice
Here's a powerful technique that I've never seen mentioned in print before. Though it's far from unknown among tournament pros, I've seen very few players use it, although the situation comes up pretty frequently.
Back at the table, you're still trailing Lefty by $50, but now it's the last hand. You've bet $250, and Lefty matches it. You have an 11, Lefty has a pair of face cards, and the dealer shows an 8. You have a basic strategy double-down, and it is quite apparent that you should double if you want to have any reasonable chance of winning the round. In the last example, we had a poor double-down and wanted to minimize the cost by doubling for less.
This time, with a solid basic strategy double, most players would choose to double for the full amount. That would be a huge mistake! Consider what happens if you draw a poor card on your double. If your double ends up stiff, with a total of less than 17, Lefty can now lock you out of any chance to win. He can split the face cards, stand on any stiff, and you have zero chance of winning the round. It's over!
To eliminate this possibility, you should double for less. If you double for anything between $55 and $195, you've created a difficult choice for your opponent. He can no longer lock you out with a split. If he splits, and the dealer beats both of you, you now advance instead of him. Since he can't split for less, you force him to choose between "first high" and "first low". He must decide whether he wants to cover you winning or the dealer winning, since he cannot do both. All this, just because you doubled for less than the full amount.
This tactic works wonders, no matter what the dealer upcard, and almost no matter what you draw on your double-down. Doubling for less is almost always preferable to doubling for the full amount any time your opponent has a pair that they would prefer to split rather than double.
This is a powerful play, and it arises often enough that it deserves a name. Since I've never seen it mentioned by other authors, I'll go out on a limb and christen it "Ken's Quandary", with the quandary being your opponent's, after you double down. Few plays will provoke a stronger grimace from across the table.
The Powerful Rule of 2,4, and 5
A few years back, in an article in Blackjack Confidential magazine, I first detailed an idea that has proven to be among the most useful tournament strategy shortcuts that I know. The "Rule of 2, 4, and 5" allows you to quickly determine an optimal bet in many situations where you are trailing the table leader, but must bet ahead of him. This tool belongs in every tournament player’s bag of tricks, and deserves another look. While I’m at it, I’ll add a few extra items to the mix.
One of the more frustrating spots at a tournament table is when you’re behind in chip count, and betting in front of the leader. No matter what you bet, the leader has the ability to roughly match your bet and snare both the high and the low for this hand. Add to that a tournament rule that limits the time you are allowed to think before betting, and it can be tough to make a good bet. Fortunately, there’s a great shortcut that you can use to choose a bet size that maximizes your chances of passing the leader, without having to do a lot of calculations.
As usual, we’ll use some concrete examples here, so get ready to think a little. Let’s imagine our tournament allows betting limits of $5 to $1000, and we’re trailing the leader with $2000 in chips compared to his $2050. The good news is that we’re only $50 out of the lead. The bad news is that the leader can margin our bet easily, since we’re "on the button" and must bet first. The dealer is awaiting your betting decision, and time is running out. How can you decide the best bet size’ If there are several hands to go yet in the round, it would be nice to take the lead here, but we don’t want to risk any more chips than are necessary to help the cause.
Since the leader can match your bet behind you, you can’t catch him with a single bet win unless he makes a betting mistake, or you get better cards. However, options for doubling, splitting, and blackjack all give you additional ways to overtake the leader. Let’s look at a few of these possibilities.
First, consider how much the leader can bet behind you. His optimal bet will likely be whatever you bet, plus almost all of his lead. If you bet $100, he can bet up to $149 and still have both the high and low. (For definitions of the "high" and "low", see this previous article: Free Hits.)
You’ll overtake the leader if you win while he pushes or loses, and also if you push while he loses. That’s true anytime you bet at least your deficit plus a chip. However, your bet of $100 adds an extra way for you to win, that the minimal $51 bet does not provide. Let’s assume that he bets $149 behind you. Now, if you can win a double-down bet, you’ll overtake him even if he wins his hand. You gain $200, he gains $149, and now you have a $1 lead. That’s no coincidence. But, we can do better yet.
This time, you bet $200. He places an optimal bet of $249. You’ve just added an extra way to win. A double-down obviously still wins for you, but now look what happens if you draw a blackjack. A blackjack on your $200 bet pays $300. If he wins his $249, and you win $300, you’re $1 ahead again. Again, no coincidence there.
One more time, this time you bet $250. Your opponent bets $299. This time, he’s the lucky one, drawing a blackjack. You groan, but then push out the money to double on whatever hand you have. If you succeed in your double down, you win $500. The leader picked up only $448.50. You now lead by $1.50.
Each of these decisions involves several calculations, and going through this process at the table is clearly a problem. That’s where the shortcut comes in. You’re guaranteed to have these extra ways to win if you simply make sure you bet at least the following multiples of your deficit. In our example, we had a $50 deficit going into the hand:
Bet 2x your deficit ($100): You win with a double-down over a single bet win by the leader.
Bet 4x your deficit ($200): You win with a blackjack over a single bet win by the leader.
Bet 5x your deficit ($250): You win with a double-down even over a blackjack by the leader.
So, when in doubt, try to bet 5 times the deficit. If a bet that large endangers your position to other players at the table, consider betting 4 times or 2 times the deficit instead. Worst case, drop back to 1x plus a chip.
Sometimes these multiples overdo it, and a smaller bet will accomplish the same thing. If your bet is near or at the maximum, the leader won’t be able to bet much of his lead on top of the matching bet. Also, if betting must be in multiples of $5, sometimes these multiples overshoot the target by a little. But, the real beauty of this rule is its simplicity. It’s quick and easy to calculate, and you’re guaranteed to have the benefits described.
You’ll also often find that the leader will not make anywhere near an optimal bet behind you. They may bet too little, and give you extra ways to overtake them, or often, they’ll overbet and give you the low on the hand. Even though you have a considerable bet working, you might be pulling for the dealer to wipe out the table.
Of course, in each of these cases, the leader can double-down behind you to retake the high. But, hey, you’re trailing, on the button. Of course you’re an underdog! You have to make the best of your circumstances. Using the Rule of 2, 4, and 5 gives you an easy way to do just that.
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